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luni, 21 septembrie 2009

Evolution of the dollar, the past and prospects.

Currently the Euro - USD dominate financial markets, but in the past before the emergence of the euro, there were a multitude of national currencies, each having its own exchange rate with the dollar.

Representative for Europe are German mark and French franc currency.
They had different trends since 1970 against the dollar, if the mark is ascendant course, between 1970 to 1980 and 1987-1998, pending the Euro, with a fall in the period 1980-1987, the franc presents an up evolution from U.S. dollars in the first period, a more pronounced fall in the second and a better evolution in the third period, but weaker exchange rates compared with the 70.

From being a 3.6 marks / dollar in 1971, is reached 1,7-1,9 courses in 1980, following decreases in the German mark, with variations between 2-3,2 marks / U.S. dollar between 1980-1987 , and a continues strengthening until the appearance of euro in the band 1.5-2.0 reaching 1.6 marks / dollar at the end.

French franc goes from being a 5.5 francs / dollar in 1971, reaching a rate of 4.5 in 1980, decreased strongly between 1980-1987 registering falls of up to 9.6 francs / dollar, and during 1987 -1998 stabilizes band 5.6 francs / US dollars.

Starting with the advent of the euro, after falling to euro in the first 4 years, from 0.85 euro / dollar at 1.18 euro / dollar, the dollar fell "strong", with a minimum of 0.64 euro / dollar and at present time 0.71 euros is need to buy $ 1.

Evolution of the dollar in the last 10 years, continuing trend of decline, the force of German economy that disciplined evolution of the new currency, euro, attenuated the shock of single economic integration of the various European national economies.

What we could have in the future, dollar decline that will swing band 0.5-0.7 euros per $ 1, or at the current quote used 1,4000-2,0000 dollars/euro.

First posted 07.04.2009 (fourth of july 2009)

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